The rivalry between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo has defined a generation of football. But beyond trophies and records, there’s another dimension to this debate - betting. Both stars have had an enormous influence on markets worldwide, especially for soccer betting wagers like “anytime scorer” or “first to score.” If you're exploring how to approach these bets more strategically, CasinosFest offers insights for soccer bettors into how online soccer betting sites in Canada behave and where value can often be found. With online gambling and casino platforms gaining popularity across different regions, this comparison explores long-term profitability in a measurable way. Read on to find out more.
Defining “Profitability” in Sports Betting
Profitability isn’t just about winning a few bets. It’s about making money over time. One of the most important ways to measure this is through ROI - return on investment. In simple terms, ROI tells you how much you earn compared to how much you bet.
We’ll look at profitability from the past 10 seasons (2013/14 to 2022/23), covering both club and international matches. Our analysis uses popular markets such as “anytime scorer,” a common choice among gambling enthusiasts. For each match the player participated in, we assume $10 is staked. We then track the total returns based on average odds and the number of times the player scored. Data for these stats was sourced from various platforms like Transfermarkt and WhoScored that track performance across major leagues and winning tournaments
Betting on Messi: Trends & Profits
Lionel Messi’s style of play has always been a blend of creativity, speed, and precise finishing. He has been a consistent feature in gambling markets that focus on goals, assists, and shots. But what makes Messi unique is his ability to contribute in many ways, often leading to better chances for bettors willing to take a more calculated approach.
Looking at the most profitable seasons for Messi, we can’t ignore his time at Barcelona from 2013 to 2019. This was Messi’s peak years, where he scored frequently in both La Liga and the Champions League. His odds were usually around 1.85 for an “anytime scorer” bet. Betting $10 per match, assuming 20 goals in 34 appearances, would return a modest profit of 8.8% for the season.
During his time with Argentina, Messi’s performance in the 2021 Copa América was another standout moment. Despite Argentina not being heavily favored, Messi scored important goals and provided assists, which created value. His chances were high compared to the eventual outcomes, making him a profitable option for bettors.
After joining PSG, the role of Messi evolved. He became more of a creator than a finisher. Gamblers could look for value in assist and shots-on-target markets rather than simply bets on goals. Online casino and betting sites often offered odds around 2.00 for Messi to provide an assist, which became a solid wager in games where PSG faced weaker opponents.
In 2023/24, Messi’s move to Inter Miami in MLS presented new opportunities. His early form was dominant, especially in the Leagues Cup, where he scored 10 goals in 7 matches. In less competitive leagues, bettors found increased value due to slightly higher odds.
Betting on Ronaldo: Trends & Profits
Cristiano Ronaldo game revolves around one thing: scoring. Whether it's a header, penalty, or last-minute strike, Ronaldo's reputation as a goal machine has made him the best among go-to players for markets that focus on goals.
His best years came at Real Madrid. Between 2016 and 2018, Ronaldo was the top scorer in the Champions League, leading his team to multiple titles. According to FiveThirtyEight, his performances during this period demonstrated a high correlation between scoring and his betting odds, providing great value for bettors willing to back him in big games. His chances for an “anytime scorer” bet were often 2.00 or higher, providing great value for bettors willing to back him in big games. If you placed $10 on him to score in every match during this period, you'd see an ROI of around 37.5%, thanks to his consistent goal-scoring.
When Cristiano Ronaldo moved to Juventus, his odds remained high, but his goal-scoring became less predictable. However, there were still opportunities for bettors, particularly in football games against lower-ranked teams. The key for bettors was recognizing when Ronaldo was in peak form, which made his probabilities more favorable.
His return to Manchester United saw mixed results, but markets adjusted quickly. The odds reflected his superstar status, but as his performances fluctuated, his value declined.
Since 2023, Ronaldo has been playing in the Saudi Pro League with Al-Nassr. Despite being in his late 30s, he remains one of the top scorers in the league. Bettors have capitalized on weaker defenses and open game styles, often finding favorable odds in the 2.10–2.40 range.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Below is a comparison of Messi and Ronaldo, based on betting outcomes from 2013 to 2023. The table includes data on their win rates, ROI, and performance in high-stakes matches. These figures offer a snapshot of players' betting value.
| Metric | Lionel Messi | Cristiano Ronaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate for Bets | 64% | 66% |
| Average Odds (Anytime Scorer) | 1.85 | 2.00 |
| ROI (2013–2023, est.) | +14% | +17% |
| Most Profitable Period | 2017–2019 (Barcelona) | 2016–2018 (Real Madrid) |
| Value in Big Matches | Moderate | High |
| Predictability | High | Moderate |
Hidden Factors That Affect Betting Profitability
While stats are essential, there are other factors that impact profitability. For example, public perception can influence betting odds. When Messi or Ronaldo play in high-profile games, their chances may drop due to massive betting activity. This sometimes lowers their value.
Team dynamics also play a role. Messi’s peak years at Barcelona were an example of a system designed to maximize his strengths. In PSG, his role changed, and while he still contributed, bettors found better value in markets that focused on assists and shots rather than goals.
Ronaldo’s situation was different. At Real Madrid, he was the primary goal scorer. But at Juventus and Manchester United, his role became more inconsistent. This made his value harder to predict. However, in the Saudi Pro League, bookmakers adjusted their views, providing new opportunities for bettors to capitalize on.
Top 3 Tips for Betting on Star Players
- Avoid big-name bias:
In high-profile matches, odds are often compressed due to massive public betting. Look for value in lesser-known fixtures.
- Check lineups before betting:
If Messi or Ronaldo are rotated or benched (common in cup games), avoid pre-match markets.
- Analyze form + opponent:
Betting success often depends on the player’s recent goal form and the opponent’s defensive record.
Final Verdict: Who’s More Profitable?
When comparing long-term profitability, both Messi and Ronaldo offer strong cases for bettors. To explore in more depth who delivers better returns in football betting, check out this detailed analysis in Messi vs. Ronaldo: Who brings victory to bettors more often? Ronaldo’s ability to score in big football games - especially during his time at Real Madrid - made him a highly profitable option. His ROI during these years was exceptional, but his value has fluctuated more in recent seasons.
Messi, on the other hand, was more consistent. His ability to create, score, and influence matches in various ways made him a steady option for bettors. While his ROI wasn’t as high as Ronaldo’s in peak years, his regularity made him a more reliable choice over time.
For casino and betting lovers looking for higher-risk, high-reward opportunities, Ronaldo is the more profitable pick. However, for those who prefer steady returns and a more predictable betting outcome, Messi proves to be the better option.
If you're serious about online betting and looking for reliable online casino platforms that provide such an option, CasinosFest is an expert guide. No matter if you're betting on soccer on an app or betting directly on a trusted online casino platform, understanding player performance is key to improving your gambling strategy.