It is hard to think of a football rivalry that has captured so much attention as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. For years, the two were competing for the same honours, breaking records and giving fans plenty to debate. The Ballon d’Or was a big part of that story, with both players taking turns at the top. Looking back at their odds over the years gives an idea of how their chances were viewed before each ceremony. For future Ballon d’Or odds, it might be effective to use a comparison app like ITV OddsFinder to find the best odds for potential Ballon d'Or winners.
2008-2009: The Beginning of Ronaldo and Messi’s Domination
Ronaldo had his first big moment in 2008, winning the Ballon d’Or after an outstanding season with Manchester United. He scored 42 goals in all competitions and helped the club win both the Premier League and Champions League. Messi came second, but he did not have to wait long for his turn. Barcelona enjoyed a brilliant 2008/09 campaign under Pep Guardiola, winning the Champions League against Ronaldo’s Manchester United. Messi scored in the final and went on to claim his first Ballon d’Or in 2009. It was the start of a rivalry that would dominate the award for years.
2010-2012: Messi’s Takeover
Messi won the Ballon d’Or three years in a row between 2010 and 2012. At Barcelona, he was at the heart of a team that played some of the best football in Europe, while his own goalscoring record continued to improve. His 2012 campaign was particularly remarkable, with 91 goals for club and country across the calendar year. Ronaldo was still delivering outstanding performances for Real Madrid and helped them win La Liga in 2011/12. Even so, Messi had the edge in the individual awards. By the end of 2012, he had won the Ballon d’Or four times, compared with Ronaldo’s single victory.
2013-2014: Ronaldo Closing the Gap
Ronaldo turned the tables by winning the Ballon d’Or in 2013 and 2014. His goals for Real Madrid were a major reason for his success, particularly during their run to Champions League glory in 2014. He scored 17 goals in that season’s competition, a record that still stands, and found the net in the final against Atlético Madrid. The odds reflected Ronaldo’s strong position in the 2013 race. In December, reported odds at several bookmakers had him around 1/2, with Messi at 2/1 to 3/1 and Franck Ribéry further behind at around 12/1 to 14/1. Ronaldo went on to win the award, reinforcing the view that he had become Messi’s closest rival for individual honours.
2015-2017: Continuation of Messi and Ronaldo’s Dominance
In 2015, Messi returned to number 1 after a Champions League, La Liga, and Copa del Rey victory. Ronaldo took back the award in the following 2 years after Real Madrid and Portugal's success, including Euro 2016 and a Champions League title. By the end of 2017, both players had five Ballon d’Or awards each, only heating up the rivalry.
2018: Messi and Ronaldo’s Turning Point
In 2018, Luka Modrić became the first player since 2007 to win the Ballon d'Or other than Messi or Ronaldo, potentially showing a shift in an era of dominance. His success came after achieving a third consecutive Champions League title with Real Madrid, as well as having one of the most iconic World Cup runs, reaching the final with Croatia. Ronaldo finished as a runner-up, while Messi couldn’t even manage the top three, which highlighted a significant change in terms of two names no longer being the only contenders for the award.
2019-2021: Messi, Ronaldo, and the New Contenders
Messi won his sixth Ballon d’Or in 2019 after another productive season for Barcelona. The race was not as straightforward as some might have expected. In July, archived odds showed Virgil van Dijk as the clear favourite at around 1/3, with Messi at approximately 6/5 and Ronaldo at 14/1. In the end, Messi took home the Ballon d’Or, a more controversial win that is still discussed to this day. The COVID-19 pandemic put a hold on the award, with Lewandowski being the favourite in 2020, but in 2021, Messi returned to the top once more.
2022-2023: Messi’s World Cup Glory
Karim Benzema became the second player to win the award other than Messi or Ronaldo since 2007 in 2022, despite names like Van Dijk and Lewandowski coming close in previous years. Despite the apparent shift, Messi was still able to claim his third Ballon d’Or thanks to an exceptional World Cup victory.
2023 and Beyond
The Messi and Ronaldo era looks to be slowly coming to an end, with the two stars no longer playing in the top leagues and the Argentinian announcing his international retirement. The likes of Rodri and Dembele have taken the past two awards, in 2024 and 2025, respectively, and as of now, Harry Kane leads the charge to the 2026 Ballon d’Or with odds set at 1/2, while Lamine Yamal sits just short at 7/4.