The Ballon d'Or is the most prestigious individual award in football. In this article, we compare Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo's chances of winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or based on the latest odds and implied probabilities. We then consider who is most likely to win and answer the most frequently asked questions about the historic duo. Experts at FootballPredictions.com analyse the market and assess both icons' chances.
What are the odds & probability of Messi to win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
Messi's odds to win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 are currently 6/1, giving him an implied probability of around 14%. Messi started the 2026 World Cup at 50/1, but his performances for Argentina dramatically changed the picture. The 39-year-old scored eight goals in six matches and led the reigning world champions to another World Cup semi-final, causing his odds to shorten to 6/1. Messi won the Ballon d'Or for a record eighth time in 2023 following Argentina's World Cup triumph in Qatar, but failed to finish in the top three in either of the past two seasons. Argentina's defeat in the World Cup final significantly reduces his chances of claiming a ninth Ballon d'Or. At 6/1, the implied probability is approximately 14%. According to sources at FootballPredictions.com, this is an emotional bet that offers little market value given the strength of the competition.
What are the odds & probability of Cristiano Ronaldo to win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
Cristiano Ronaldo's odds to win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 are currently 500/1, giving him a probability of around 0.2%. Ronaldo is no longer considered a serious contender for the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The Messi-Ronaldo duopoly is over, with recent winners including Benzema in 2022, Rodri in 2024 and Dembélé in 2025. Ronaldo now plays for Al-Nassr in Saudi Arabia, a league that carries little weight with the Ballon d'Or jury. Most bookmakers price him at 500/1 or higher, representing an implied probability of less than 0.2%. Data from FootballPredictions.com confirms that Ronaldo is realistically no longer a factor in the current Ballon d'Or market and is priced by bookmakers purely as a novelty.
Messi vs Ronaldo to Win Ballon d'Or 2026: Comparison Table
The Messi vs Ronaldo comparison for the 2026 Ballon d'Or shows that Messi has a considerably higher implied and realistic chance of winning.
| Player | Odds | Implied probability | Realistic chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 6/1 | ~14% | Moderate – lost World Cup final |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 500/1 | <1% | Very low – plays in Saudi Arabia |
What is the Ballon d'Or?
The Ballon d'Or is the most prestigious individual award in football, presented by France Football based on votes cast by international football journalists. The winner is selected according to individual and collective performances over the previous season.
Who is most likely to win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
Kylian Mbappé is most likely to win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 as the new 15/8 favourite with bet365, followed by Lamine Yamal at 5/2. Spain's victory at the 2026 World Cup has significantly improved the chances of Spanish players and their World Cup teammates.
How many times did Messi win the Ballon d'Or?
Messi has won the Ballon d'Or a record eight times, most recently in 2023 following his World Cup triumph in Qatar in 2022.
How many times did Ronaldo win the Ballon d'Or?
Cristiano Ronaldo has won the Ballon d'Or five times: in 2008, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017.