Goals and assists are the most important metrics in football, used to measure attack quality. However, they don’t tell the whole story. An attack can involve several important decisions before a player delivers the final pass or scores.
Lionel Messi is an ideal example of this. He’s able to carry the ball past midfielders, draw defenders out of position, and release a teammate who creates the eventual chance. All of these actions could have an impact on the outcome as much as a perfectly placed finish.
What Exactly Is a Pre-Assist?
A pre-assist is a pass made before the assist, in a move that leads to scoring a goal. It’s sometimes called a secondary assist. A pre-assist explains how an attack develops; however, it captures only one part of it.
For instance, if Messi receives the ball in midfield, carries it forward, and passes to a teammate near the penalty area. The teammate sends a through-ball to the striker, who scores. This won’t appear in Messi’s official statistics, but he had a contribution to scoring, and it can be a crucial one.
Since crypto sports betting sites provide their odds based on official statistics, they may have a difficult time capturing this contribution. Sites such as these allow players to place wagers regardless of where they are based and without providing personal data. At the same time, it takes an experienced bettor to understand nuances such as a pre-assist when choosing to place a wager.
The Statistical Evidence: Messi's Work Before the Final Pass
A StatsBomb analysis published in April 2021 provides a useful example of Messi's influence before the final pass. The research showed that Messi provided an average of 2.4 secondary key passes per 90 minutes, the highest figure in La Liga at the time.
The same research went into more detail and found that Messi was moving the ball into the final third 12.8 times per 90 minutes, more frequently than at any previous point in his Barcelona career. His contribution to this portion of the attack has increased further even as his open-play expected assists and dribbling figures declined compared with previous seasons.
The statistics, which cover only this portion of Messi’s career, still illustrate a broader point. It shows that Messi's influence was not limited to delivering the final ball.
The Actions That Make Messi's Pre-Assists Valuable
Messi’s pre-assists are even more interesting when we take into account the actions behind them. The influence starts with Messi’s ability to change an opponent's defensive shape before making the pass that advances the attack.
This is often done through progressive passing. By finding a teammate beyond the opposition's midfield line, Messi can eliminate several defenders from the immediate action and move his team closer to goal. The next pass can create a chance, and it starts with an attacking advantage created by Messi.
Another route comes from dribbling and defensive attraction. When Messi is carrying a ball towards the defenders, they can close him down or protect their positions. If players decide to focus on Messi, it opens up space for teammates elsewhere.
Short combinations are just as important. A quick exchange near the penalty area will draw defenders to the ball and create a passing lane towards the goal.
How Analysts Could Measure His Full Contribution
For a more complex analysis, bettors should take into account diverse contributions provided by Messi, starting with all pre-assists, as they too often get overlooked.
Second, progressive passes and carries show how frequently he advances possession towards the opposition's goal. These metrics make an important distinction between circulating the ball and moving it into more dangerous areas.
Shot-ending sequence involvement measures how often a player participates in attacking moves that conclude with a shot. It’s one of the best ways to measure the contribution of the player who didn’t make a shot, nor did they assist the player who did.
In the end, expected assists (xA) estimate the quality of scoring opportunities created by a player's passes.
When put together, these metrics can give a better image of how much work goes into a scoring opportunity before any of the usual statistics kick in.
Conclusion: The Attack Starts Before the Assist
Messi’s pre-assist statistics reveal an important part of an attacking value that goes beyond assists or goals. His ability to progress the ball, attract defenders, and participate in shot-ending sequences helps explain how attacks develop before the decisive pass.
The figures demonstrate that assists and scoring can’t completely capture how much Messi brings to the team and how important his contributions can be.